Once upon a time, tariffs felt like a policy from a different era.
The kind of thing you studied in school but never thought would actually impact you. A relic from the Cold War era. Back when countries tried to fix their problems with trade barriers and heavy-handed policy instead of building better systems. An outdated policy that everyone knew was like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
And then, almost overnight, they were back.
Trump pulled them off the shelf and put them front and center.
In February, the administration dropped a sweeping round of tariffs. A universal 10% on all imports. Some categories got hit with as much as 60%. Chinese imports got slammed hardest. They called it “Liberation Day,” like we were all supposed to celebrate.
The market reacted immediately. Five trillion dollars in value was wiped out in a matter of days. Investors panicked. Twitter lit up.
And then, the news cycle moved on.
For Wall Street, it was just another volatility spike. But for small businesses, the shock didn’t fade. It compounded.
And so did the fallout.
And that’s where we are now. Still dealing with the downstream consequences of something that felt temporary but wasn’t. Something that sounded political but turned out to be far worse.
I want to make something clear before I go further.
This is not a political newsletter. This isn’t about which party has the better trade policy, or what theory you believe is better for the country. You can believe tariffs are good for America in the long run. Or you can believe they’re economic sabotage.
Doesn’t matter here.
What matters is that if you run a business, especially one that sells physical product or relies on global vendors, you’re probably feeling it. And if you’re not feeling it yet, you will. Because the real damage of these kinds of policies doesn’t show up in headlines. It shows up in margin erosion. In supply chain delays. In founders quietly pulling the plug because the math doesn’t pencil anymore.
The news cycle might have moved on, but here’s what didn’t: the ripple effect. It hit like a gut punch, and no one’s talking about it. My wife runs a digital marketing agency that works with 70+ small to mid-sized product businesses. In the last 60 days, nine clients have either cut their spend to zero or started quietly winding their business down.
It’s devastating to witness.
These weren’t rookies. They weren’t bad operators. These were profitable brands with loyal customers. They had healthy funnels. Their product was dialed. And then… it just stopped working.
Margins collapsed. Profit models evaporated. One client saw their landed cost go up 32% across the board, wiping out their margin in one fell swoop. Another was forced to renegotiate every vendor contract just to avoid defaulting on their line of credit.
And despite the political theater, American manufacturers aren’t immune. One American furniture manufacturer we know personally had been sourcing raw materials from China for years. High quality. Reliable. Predictable pricing. Now? They’re fighting to stay solvent. Not because of bad decisions, but because the rules changed faster than they could.
These are only the first-order effects. First, the product companies get hit, then the agencies that serve them, and then the vendors and software companies that support the agencies. And that’s only one vertical, one industry.
This affects all of us, whether you know it yet or not.
And that’s the thing. Most of the damage tariffs cause isn’t loud. The damage doesn’t usually show up all at once. It creeps in. Margins start to thin. Your supplier quietly tacks on a surcharge. Shipping takes longer. You push back a campaign. You hold off on a new hire, just to be safe. No single decision sinks the ship. But over time, it gets harder to stay ahead of the current. And then one day, you catch yourself wondering if the model still works at all.
I’ve seen this movie before.
After I exited my company, I bought a distressed ecomm brand in what I thought was going to be a quick turnaround. It needed some cleanup – debt restructuring, operational tightening, a few systems plugged in. I figured we’d stabilize it in twelve months, maybe triple the value, and exit clean.
Instead, I was losing $100K a month. Every month.
I had a solid plan and a solvent business model. Then Apple rolled out the iOS update and torched our entire customer acquisition model overnight. Paid traffic performance tanked. We couldn’t replace the lost revenue fast enough. We were running uphill on ice.
I had the experience. I had the team. I had the capital. None of it mattered. Because when the environment shifts underneath you – and it’s moving faster than your business can adapt – no playbook will save you.
That’s what tariffs do. They change the fundamental assumptions upon which countless small businesses have been built.
But the press doesn’t see that. Politicians don’t see it. They talk about “American resilience” and “bringing jobs home” like it’s a slogan. Like small business owners aren’t the ones paying the price.
This isn’t about politics. It’s about real people running real businesses, trying to make the numbers work while the ground keeps shifting underneath them.
If that’s you, I don’t have a five-step plan. But I do have a starting point.
Start with the data.
Pull up your numbers. Look at them with fresh eyes. What used to make sense that doesn’t anymore? Where are you making decisions based on how things were, not how they are?
Where are you overexposed? Are you too tied to one supplier? One region? One platform?
Where are you pretending something is temporary when it’s probably not?
Most founders I know aren’t failing because they’re lazy or distracted. They’re failing because they built the right business for the wrong environment, and they didn’t see how fast the environment was changing.
I’ve watched sharp operators hold onto old assumptions just a little too long. I’ve watched them get caught flat-footed while someone else with less experience moved quicker and made the hard calls early.
Here’s the reality: in a declining environment, the best time to make cuts was yesterday. The next best time is today. And if you don’t take action, you will quickly find yourself behind the power curve.
If something feels off right now, even if the numbers haven’t fully reflected it, trust that. That signal is trying to tell you something. And the longer you ignore it, the more expensive it becomes.
This is the moment to pause and ask: does this still work?
Not in theory. In reality. Is the model still sound, or are we just trying to outpace the inevitable?
You don’t have to figure it all out alone. But you do need people around you who will tell the truth. Who won’t sugarcoat it. Who won’t let you drift into denial.
No one writes business books about this part. No one wants to talk about the quiet dismantling of assumptions. The hard cuts. The slow rebuild.
But that’s where resilience gets built.
And right now, resilience matters more than hype.
Because tariffs aren’t a blip. They’re a new layer in the game. And if you’re still playing by the old rules, you’re going to get caught.
If your business has taken a hit – if the numbers stopped making sense and you’ve had to make hard decisions – I want you to know I’ve been there.
It’s one thing to manage a business in a challenging market. It’s another to wake up and realize the rules changed, and no one told you. Tariffs, supply chain shifts, rising costs – they don’t hit all at once. They show up in missed projections, delayed campaigns, the hire you can’t justify anymore.
Start with the numbers. Not the story you’ve told yourself. Not the version you hoped would play out. Just the truth in front of you.
That’s where clarity begins. And clarity is what keeps you in the game.
You don’t need more advice. You need to see what’s real. And if you’re already doing that, if you’re standing in the middle of it trying to figure out your next move, I respect the hell out of that.
Stay with it. Adjust where you need to. And keep going.
– mb
