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The Flat Part of the Curve

April 1, 2025

Last night I had a mini-meltdown.

Shocking, I know. You probably think I’ve got it all together, always have control over my emotions, and live in the zen of a carefully crafted rich life.

And for the most part, that’s true. I mostly have it all together. But life is messy sometimes, and this was one of those weeks.

After coming back from my travel adventures, I was hit with a “travel hangover” – that feeling of being slightly out of sorts after too many peak experiences packed too closely together.

This week I had back-to-back calls all day, every day. Clients, prospective members, internal and external meetings. Zero white space, maximum stress. 

I did what any rational person would do: I realigned my calendar, implemented new systems, and set better boundaries. I committed to no new travel over the next 6 months (I’ve got a few trips stacked in anyway, but much less than the last few months).

But last night, there I was, my mind was still racing with my giant to-do list that I ignored all week and the uncomfortable reality that I was still feeling overwhelmed.

I had fixed the problem! And yet, the overwhelm persisted.

What was I doing wrong?

Nothing, actually.

Shout-out to my brilliant and supportive wife for pointing out the obvious. I was looping on how overwhelmed I was when she gave me a little dose of tough love like only she can.

I simply hadn’t given my inputs enough time. 

She reminded me that we had been traveling nonstop for 8 weeks and had only been home for a week. I was simply paying the price of galavanting. And she was right.

I know that in a month, I’ll be much less overwhelmed, but I wanted things to happen now.

This is the exact same trap we fall into with fitness. We decide we want visible abs, we hardcore diet and workout for two weeks, and then look in the mirror and wonder why nothing’s happened.

Here’s the truth: we have a really hard time selecting the appropriate dataset in order to judge our results.

This newsletter is as much a reminder to myself as to anyone else.

Here’s the pattern I see over and over:

  1. We make inputs
  2. We change the system
  3. We wait impatiently
  4. We don’t see the results
  5. We change the inputs again

This cycle keeps us stuck on the flat part of the compound interest curve. We never give our inputs enough time to take effect and essentially normalize into our life.

I once worked with a client whose business was doing great overall, but they’d have one down month and immediately panic, wanting to change everything. When I showed them the data, it became clear that looking month-to-month wasn’t useful. It turned out, the month before was their best month ever, and this month they had simply reverted to the mean. They needed to look at a minimum of three months in order to understand the true trajectory.

If you have a down quarter, that’s more useful information than having one down month, because you need to have a relevant data set to make good decisions.

The compound interest curve is perhaps the most powerful visual for understanding this phenomenon. We all know what it looks like – that flat, boring beginning that suddenly shoots up into hockey stick growth. What most people miss is how long you have to stay on that flat part before things start to take off.

The most successful people I know aren’t necessarily better at making changes – they’re better at sticking with those changes long enough to see results.

Here are some real-world examples of how long changes actually take to start working:

  • New exercise routine: 6-8 weeks
  • Marketing strategy: 3-6 months
  • Business model shifts: 6-12 months
  • Building a proper investment portfolio: 10+ years minimum

Yet we often abandon ship after just days or weeks, never giving the compound effect a chance to work.

I’ve done this myself more times than I care to admit. I’ll get excited about a new system or habit, implement it, and then grow impatient when I don’t see immediate results.

The reality is that systems need time to take root. New habits need to be repeated enough times to become automatic. Boundaries need to be tested and reinforced before they become respected.

When we are looking at whether our inputs are generating the desired outputs, we need to select the appropriate time frame in order to judge the results.

The mistake isn’t in the changes we’re making – it’s in our unrealistic expectations about how quickly those changes should bear fruit.

The overwhelm I’m feeling right now isn’t a sign that my new systems aren’t working; it’s just that I haven’t given them enough time to work.

I know that in six weeks, the deep work calendar blocks will alleviate the mighty to-do list. The boundaries will have yielded the desired results. The new workflows will have become second nature. But right now, everything still feels new and requires conscious effort, which itself is exhausting.

The paradox is that the results-focused decision-making that drives us to make changes in the first place can prevent those changes from actually working. We want results now, but meaningful growth rarely happens immediately.

So here’s my commitment to myself (and perhaps a suggestion for you): I’m going to give my recent changes a full six weeks before I evaluate whether they’re working. No major overhauls, no abandoning ship, no adding complicated new systems on top of what I’ve already put in place.

Just consistent execution and patience.

Ask yourself:

What changes have you recently implemented that deserve more time to take effect?

Where might your impatience be working against you?

The flat part of the curve isn’t a sign of failure – it’s a necessary foundation for what comes next. And those who can stay the course during this seemingly unproductive period are the ones who eventually hit the hockey stick growth that everyone else is chasing.

To playing the long game,

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